NOAA predicts above-average hurricane activity for seventh consecutive year

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its predictions for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. For the seventh consecutive year, forecasters are predicting above-average storm activity. More specifically, NOAA predicts a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

This year, NOAA is forecasting (with 70 percent confidence) a likely range of:

14 – 21 Named Storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
6 - 10 Hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
3 – 6 Major Hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher)

Forecasters at Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project are similarly predicting an active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. They are forecasting 19 named storms, including 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The probability of a major hurricane (Category 3-4-5) making landfall somewhere along the east coast of the United States (including Florida) is 47 percent. The probability of a Gulf Coast landfall (from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas) is 46 percent.

The likelihood of increased activity is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and weaker tropical trade winds. An enhanced west African monsoon also supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest-lived hurricanes during most seasons. In light of these factors, NOAA is urging everyone to understand their risk and to start preparing for what is expected to be an active hurricane season.

A lot is made of these annual predictions, but it only takes one storm to make it an active hurricane season for you. Is your business ready to withstand a hurricane? Your employees are counting on you to be prepared. Their livelihoods depend on it! Use our Hurricane Season 2022 Business Preparation Checklist to make sure everything gets done before the storm.

The Human Equation prepares all risk management and insurance content with the professional guidance of Setnor Byer Insurance & Risk.